ISSUE NO. 28 · THURSDAY 10 SEPTEMBER 2026

A thirty-year bond at the steepest yield since 1998, a five-year fix at 5.68%, and £124bn of British companies bought by people who thought they were cheap

The Debt Management Office is marketing a thirty-year bond at the steepest yield on any new debt since the body was created in 1998. Behind that sits a number already baked in: UK debt interest is projected to top £137bn in 2030, whatever the Chancellor decides in October. And the room to do anything about it keeps shrinking — headroom against the fiscal rules has fallen from £23.6bn at the Spring Statement to as little as £11.5bn on RSM’s estimate.

The same repricing is arriving everywhere else at once. Five lenders moved before the Bank of England has even met, taking the average five-year fix to 5.68 per cent. And £124bn of British companies changed hands in six months, up 107 per cent on a year earlier — across fewer deals, which is another way of saying the companies got cheaper.

Below in full: what a record yield does to a Budget that has not happened yet, why mortgage rates rose a week before the MPC meets, and what £124bn of takeovers actually says about British valuations. After those, the numbers, today’s diary, and one calculator worth five minutes.

Lead

A thirty-year bond at the steepest yield the Debt Management Office has offered since it opened in 1998.

That is the headline, and the number underneath it matters more: debt interest payments are projected to top £137bn in 2030, before the Chancellor changes a thing. A global bond rout hit the UK harder than most, and the effect on the Budget arithmetic is already visible — headroom against the fiscal rules has fallen from £23.6bn at the Spring Statement to as little as £11.5bn on RSM’s estimate, with analysts warning taxes have to rise. Watch that headroom figure over the coming weeks rather than the yield, because it is the one that decides what is possible. Strip out the politics and one line survives: more than £137bn of debt interest in 2030, before anyone argues about tax or growth. The Chancellor can change who pays, and when. He cannot change that the bill exists. Read the full story →

The Numbers

Bank Rate is 3.75% with seven days to the 17 September decision — but the mortgage card below is the point: lenders have already moved, and the gap between the five-year fix and Bank Rate is now 1.93 points. CPI is still July’s 2.9%. And the index fell 1.31% on Wednesday — its steepest one-day drop since the Briefing began capturing closes in early August — leaving it 241 points below its twelve-month high.

More News

Five lenders repriced to open the week. The average five-year fix climbed to 5.68 per cent, the highest since 11 May.

It moved from 5.64 per cent, so the step itself is small — the timing is what matters. Barclays put rates up by nearly 0.2 percentage points, taking its two-year fix to 5.53 per cent and its five-year to 5.48 per cent; TSB added 0.15 across its range. All of that happened with Bank Rate still at 3.75 per cent and the Monetary Policy Committee not meeting until 17 September. That is the part worth understanding: lenders do not wait for the Bank, because they price off the swap market, and the swap market has already decided what money costs. Whatever the committee announces next week, households have been paying the new price since Monday. The decision ratifies; it does not initiate. Read the full story →

£124bn of UK takeovers in six months, up 107 per cent on a year earlier — across fewer deals.

That combination is the whole story. More money, fewer transactions, which means buyers are going after bigger targets and finding them affordable. Unilever’s £33.4bn sale of its food division to McCormick lifted consumer markets deal value by 486 per cent on its own. Behind it sit Nuveen’s £10bn move for Schroders, Zurich’s £8bn bid for Beazley and Ingredion’s £2.7bn play for Tate & Lyle — all three expected to end in delistings, which is the same public market that has managed one sizeable IPO this year losing three more names. £124bn of takeovers in six months is not a vote of confidence in Britain’s companies. It is a verdict on their price. Read the full story →

The Brief

• UK Stock Funds Face a Bruising October Budget — what a Budget does to the funds holding British shares.
• 61% of Rich Brits Have Weighed Leaving the UK — the mobile end of the tax base, thinking about it out loud.
• Food Prices Will Climb Again Before Next Summer — the line households read first, forecast to keep rising.

On the Diary

• Today, 9.30am BST — Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators. The fastest series the ONS publishes, and the nearest thing to a live look at spending.
• Today, 9.30am BST — Experiences of NHS healthcare services in England. The companion to yesterday’s work on waiting times and whether people are able to work.
• Tomorrow, 7.00am BST — GDP monthly estimate for July, with UK Trade and the Index of Services. The week’s big one, and an early 7am release. The forecast that came out last week had this year’s growth built almost entirely in the first half; July is the first month where it was meant to drain away.

The Toolbox

One tool from the site each issue, picked to fit what has just happened. Free, no sign-up, and it shows its workings.

Mortgage repayment calculator

“The average five-year fix moved to 5.68% before the Bank of England has met. If your deal ends this year, the useful exercise is what that rate does to the monthly payment — not what next week’s announcement might.”

The Close

Three prices for the same country, all set this week by people who are not in Westminster. The bond market wants the steepest yield since 1998 to lend Britain money for thirty years. The swap market has put the average five-year fix at 5.68 per cent, a week before the Bank of England is due to have an opinion. And foreign buyers have paid £124bn for British companies in six months — more money across fewer deals, which happens when things are cheap rather than when they are prized. Read those together and they are not three stories. They are one price being quoted three times: it costs more to lend to Britain, more to borrow inside it, and less to buy it outright. The Budget on 28 October is where somebody finally gets to argue with that, and on £11.5bn of headroom the argument is a short one.

If something here is wrong, or there is something you want dug into, just reply. It comes straight to me.

MJB