ISSUE NO. 57 · THURSDAY 22 OCTOBER 2026

Inflation at 3.5% and climbing, £10.9bn of debt interest in a single month, and 1,400 Flutter jobs going over a gambling tax

Inflation came in at 3.5% for September, above what the City had pencilled in, and the Bank is now widely expected to raise rates on 5 November. Fuel did most of it: Brent has spent the month near $100, against roughly $70 before the strikes on Iran.

That lands six days before the Chancellor stands up, and he is already boxed in. Servicing what the country borrowed years ago took £10.9bn in September alone, which has quietly eaten the room he had. Elsewhere a betting firm is shedding jobs over a duty rise that has not finished arriving.

Below: the print that moves the Bank, the interest bill that moves the Chancellor, a tax landing on staff, four numbers, the diary and one calculator.

Lead

Prices rose 3.5% on the year in September, up from 3.1%, and the Bank already expects a four in front.

Grant Fitzner at the ONS puts the rise down to fuel again, with diesel dearer than at any point since July 2022, airfares adding to it. Brent has traded between $95 and nearly $100 this month against roughly $70 before the US and Israel struck Iran, and oil at that level does not stay at the forecourt. Underneath, core inflation reached 2.8% from 2.6%, and services 3.7% — the shock spreading rather than fading. The committee watches for second-round effects, where dearer living feeds bigger pay claims. Yael Selfin of KPMG reads a rise to 4% as insurance. Read the full story →

The Numbers

Four numbers. The inflation print landed yesterday morning and beat the forecast, the index slipped on Tuesday, and the fourth says the pressure is not only fuel.

More News

The debt pile reached £3tn, but the number that matters is what it cost to service in one month.

The ONS put the pile at £3tn in September, up from £2tn in June 2020, though as a share of the economy it fell to 94%, 0.7 points below a year earlier. Grant Fitzner notes the cash total keeps climbing even as the ratio slips. Debt interest alone came to £10.9bn in the month, and Labour has now spent more than £200bn servicing the debt since the 2024 election. September’s borrowing was close to £25bn against the £23bn markets expected. Economists reckon Healey’s buffer against his fiscal rules has shrunk from £23.6bn to around £12bn, with defence still to pay for. Read the full story →

Flutter is cutting as many as 1,400 roles across Britain and Ireland, roughly 15% of that division, and blaming the Treasury.

The division employs 8,960 people and runs Paddy Power, Sky Bet, Betfair and Tombola; Leeds and Dublin are in the firing line, along with support staff in Portugal and Romania. Rachel Reeves lifted gambling duty from 21% to 40% in her last Budget, and a levy on bookmakers’ profits climbs from 15% to 25% in April 2027, a £400m hit. Kevin Harrington, who runs the UK and Ireland arm, argues no operator can absorb that without cutting fixed costs. The OBR warned last November that punters moving to illegal sites could cost the Treasury around £500m. Read the full story →

The Brief

• Amazon Youth Promise Will Start Young Hires on £31,000 — 30,000 entry-level roles, weeks after escaping a warehouse tax.
• Jackdaw Gas Field Will Start Supplying UK This Winter — Up to 6% of UK-produced gas, or 2% of what Britain burns.

UK finance, in plain EnglishFollow @MJBurrows on X	Follow

On the Diary

• Thursday, 9.30am BST — Employee earnings in the UK, 2026. Where pay actually sits across the distribution, not the average.
• Friday, 7.00am BST — Retail sales, Great Britain, September. Whether households kept spending while fuel pushed prices up.
• Friday, 9.30am BST — Indicators of house building, Q2 2026. Starts and completions, with builders already warning on demand.

The Toolbox

One tool from the site each issue, picked to fit what has just happened. Free, no sign-up, and it shows its workings.

Remortgage Comparison Calculator

“If the Bank moves on 5 November, the deal you are sitting on starts to matter. This compares your current rate against a new one and shows what switching costs once fees are in.”

The Close

Three stories, one shape: the bill turns up before the decision does. Prices moved before the Bank votes. The interest on money borrowed years ago has already narrowed what the Chancellor can do next week. And a betting firm is cutting jobs over a duty that does not bite until the spring after next. By the time anyone announces something, most of it has already happened to somebody.

If something here is wrong, or there is something you want dug into, just reply. It comes straight to me.

MJB