ISSUE NO. 51 · WEDNESDAY 14 OCTOBER 2026

Inflation above target for a seventh year, BP writing down up to $4.5bn on green, and 42 live bids for London companies

The IMF has Britain growing at 1.3% this year, joint-second in the G7. It also has UK inflation averaging 3.3%, behind only America’s, and above the Bank of England target for a seventh consecutive year.

What today’s stories share is an economy that works but costs too much. BP is writing down its green bet while the refineries pay the bills, and overseas buyers are taking London-listed companies off the market faster than new ones arrive. Both are decisions made about Britain rather than in it.

Below: a seventh year of missing the target, a write-down that keeps repeating, a market bought faster than it is built, four numbers, the diary and one calculator.

Lead

Only America runs hotter, and by the end of this year the Bank will have missed its target seven years in a row.

The IMF puts UK inflation at an average 3.3% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, above the 2% target for a seventh year running and second in the G7 behind the United States. Germany takes the top spot in 2027, so Britain is runner-up in both forecast years. The better half is output: 1.3% growth this year, level with Germany and revised up 0.3 points since July, slowing to 1.2%. Per head, Britain still trails the US, Canada and Italy. The fund wants any windfall spent on lower borrowing, and expects rates to stay higher here than elsewhere. Read the full story →

The Numbers

Four numbers. Bank Rate and the CPI print are unchanged, the index gained almost 1% on Monday, and the fourth is the growth rate the IMF now expects.

More News

The division BP spent a decade building is the one being written down, and the refineries it nearly walked away from are paying for it.

BP expects a post-tax impairment of $3bn to $4.5bn in its third-quarter results, most of it in the gas and low carbon energy arm that holds the transition businesses. It follows write-downs of up to $5bn flagged at the end of 2025. Refining goes the other way: stronger margins should add $1.9bn to $2.1bn to earnings, and net debt is forecast to fall to between $13.5bn and $14.5bn from $22.3bn. Transition spending was already cut to a ceiling of $2bn a year, with Elliott Management pressing from a stake above 5%. Read the full story →

Forty-two bids are live for London-listed companies, against eleven floats above £100m in nearly three years.

Peel Hunt counts 42 live bids for London-listed firms worth £74bn between them, against 40 bids worth £35bn across the whole of 2025. Overseas buyers account for 64% of this year’s total. Stretch the window back to January 2023 and there have been 166 bids for companies valued above £100m, worth more than £180bn, against 11 IPOs of that size raising £6bn. Airtel Money’s £5.3bn float last week was the biggest in five years and the first above £1bn since 2021. Peel Hunt wants stamp duty on shares scrapped. Read the full story →

The Brief

• UK Retail Sales Face a Budget Test After Weak September — Growth of 1.3% on the year, down from 2.3%.
• Burnham’s Rates Cut Is Not Enough to Stop Pub Closures — A pub a day, and relief waits until spring.
• Bellway Profit Jumps 22% but Warns on Help to Buy — £270m pre-tax, and a warning on the housing fix.

On the Diary

• Thursday, 7.00am BST — Monthly GDP, August. The growth figure the Budget forecast will be built on.
• Thursday, 7.00am BST — Index of Services, August. Services are most of the economy, so this is where growth really shows.
• Thursday, 7.00am BST — UK trade, August. What Britain sold and bought, with the Gulf disruption inside it.

The Toolbox

One calculator from the site each issue, picked to fit what has just happened. Free, no sign-up, and it shows its workings.

Inflation Purchasing Power

“A seventh year above target is not an abstraction. This works out what a sum of money is worth now against any earlier year, which is the part a forecast leaves out.”

The Close

Two of today’s stories are about who decides what Britain is worth. The fund writes a forecast and the Chancellor plans around it; a bidder writes a cheque and the question is settled. One is advice, the other is a transaction. If the City wants fewer of the second kind, the argument to win is about the cost of owning British shares, not of listing them.

If something here is wrong, or there is something you want dug into, just reply. It comes straight to me.

MJB