ISSUE NO. 53 · FRIDAY 16 OCTOBER 2026

The economy grew 0.1% when forecasters said it would shrink, the CBI wants £1,000 on the National Insurance threshold, and London floated one company

The economy grew 0.1% in August. Forecasters had it shrinking by the same margin, so this is a beat — but it rests on production, a small share of output that swings hardest, while services did nothing at all.

Everything today sits a fortnight from the Budget. A Chancellor reads a month like this twice: once for the headline, once for what it does to his room for manoeuvre. Business is already at the door with its asking price, and the City is making the case that Britain has become a harder place to float a company.

Below: a beat nobody forecast, a threshold business wants lifted, a market with one new arrival all summer, four numbers, the diary and one calculator.

Lead

Economists had pencilled in a contraction for August. Output rose instead, and one sector did all of the work.

Production expanded 0.8% in August and that alone tipped the headline into growth. Services, the largest sector by far, recorded no growth at all; construction fell 0.2%. Across the three months to August output rose 0.7%, with June and July both revised up. Paul Dales at Capital Economics sees firms holding up while consumers turn cautious, with consumer-facing services the soft spot — possibly the World Cup and heatwave boosts unwinding. Yael Selfin at KPMG expects rising gas prices and long-term borrowing costs to weigh on households. A month carried by one small sector is a thin foundation. Read the full story →

The Numbers

Four numbers. Bank Rate and the CPI print are unchanged, the index rose on Wednesday, and the fourth is the figure that beat the forecasters.

More News

The CBI wants the employer National Insurance threshold lifted by £1,000, which recovers less than a quarter of what was taken off it.

The submission landed on Thursday and asks for the threshold to move from £5,000 to £6,000 so young hires cost less. Healey is already looking at help for firms taking on staff under 25, so the ask has a hearing. The rest of the list runs to policy costs stripped out of business electricity bills, a business rates overhaul and a simpler tax system. Retail bosses got there days earlier. Only 4% of founders in a Helm survey expect this Budget to be good for business, and 88% fear changes to taxes on capital or assets. Read the full story →

London’s stock market welcomed one new company in the whole third quarter, and it raised £29.8m.

That arrival was 1947 Oil and Gas, on AIM, in the quietest quarter since the end of 2023. Worldwide, 387 companies floated over the same three months and raised £72bn. Eight UK listings across nine months have raised £606.9m, ahead of the £199.1m managed by this point in 2025, so the money is not the problem — the headcount is. Scott McCubbin of EY calls it a sleepy summer and expects most candidates to aim for 2027, while warning that Budget decisions could damage the pipeline. The industry’s own ask is simpler: scrap the 0.5% stamp duty on UK shares. Read the full story →

The Brief

• Benefits for Foreign Nationals Bill Heading for £27bn — The CSJ puts last year at £23bn; the government disputes it.
• UK Government Spending Set to Outpace G7 Bar Germany — The state reaching 43.3% of GDP by 2030, says the IMF.
• Salience Labs Raises £94m to Scale Photonic Chips — AMD and Intel back an Oxford chip firm.

On the Diary

• Tuesday, 7.00am BST — UK labour market, October. Pay growth and the jobless rate, the last full read before the Budget.
• Wednesday, 7.00am BST — Consumer price inflation, September. The number the Bank carries into its November decision.
• Wednesday, 7.00am BST — Public sector finances, September. How much the Chancellor borrowed last month, a week before he stands up.

The Toolbox

One tool from the site each issue, chosen to fit what has just happened. Free, no sign-up, and it shows its workings.

BOE Rate Impact Calculator

“The Bank’s next decision is 5 November, and this month will be part of it. This works out what a move in Bank Rate does to a mortgage, a savings pot and a monthly budget.”

The Close

Two of today’s stories are the same request in different clothes. Business is not asking the Chancellor for money on 28 October; it is asking him to undo something — a threshold that was cut, a duty that was never lifted. Nothing is spent either way, which is exactly why both are so hard to grant: the moment one is undone, the queue forms.

If something here is wrong, or there is something you want dug into, just reply. It comes straight to me.

MJB