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The MJBurrows Briefing

Markets, tax, rates and the rule changes that actually move your money, in about three minutes. Free, and it stays free.

The MJBurrows Briefing, Issue No. 63, Friday 30 October 2026 — Healey's own odds are barely a coin toss
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Healey's own odds are barely a coin toss | MJBurrows Briefing

ISSUE NO. 63 · FRIDAY 30 OCTOBER 2026 6 days to the Bank’s decision Thu 5 Nov 13 days to monthly GDP Thu 12 Nov, 7.00am GMT 19 days to CPI Wed 18 Nov, 7.00am GMT The OBR puts Healey’s odds at 56%, gilts fell two basis points on the news, and Lloyds made £2.3bn as the surcharge lands The Office for Budget Responsibility gives John Healey a 56% chance of meeting his own fiscal rules. That is before the £11bn it says he must find after 2029 to stop day-to-day spending shrinking. A coin toss with...

The MJBurrows Briefing, Issue No. 62, Thursday 29 October 2026 — Budget Special: help now, choices deferred

ISSUE NO. 62 · BUDGET SPECIAL · THURSDAY 29 OCTOBER 2026 7 days to the Bank’s decision Thu 5 Nov 14 days to monthly GDP Thu 12 Nov, 7.00am GMT 20 days to CPI Wed 18 Nov, 7.00am GMT A Budget Special: £100 off energy for 20m households, banks pay 3% more, and the defence and welfare calls wait another year John Healey sent £100 to 20m households and left tax on wages and dividends exactly where he found it. The money came from banks, who pay a 3% surcharge for fifteen months. It is help you can...

The MJBurrows Briefing, Issue No. 61, Wednesday 28 October 2026 — The pay floor rises, the promise does not

ISSUE NO. 61 · WEDNESDAY 28 OCTOBER 2026 Today the Budget Wed 28 Oct 8 days to the Bank’s decision Thu 5 Nov 15 days to monthly GDP Thu 12 Nov, 7.00am GMT Youth unemployment past 16% as the wage floor rises 3.9%, London homes £5,400 down, and a $1bn buyback on the eve of the Budget Unemployment among 16 to 24-year-olds has passed 16% for the first time in over a decade. Into that, the Chancellor is reported to be putting the legal pay floor up 3.9% this morning. The two facts are not in...

The MJBurrows Briefing, Issue No. 60, Tuesday 27 October 2026 — The growth arrived, the debt grew faster

ISSUE NO. 60 · TUESDAY 27 OCTOBER 2026 1 day to the Budget Wed 28 Oct 9 days to the Bank’s decision Thu 5 Nov 16 days to monthly GDP Thu 12 Nov, 7.00am GMT Gross debt at £3tn, £17.3bn to reach 3% on defence, and Babcock up 2.6% on an unconfirmed plan Britain’s gross debt has reached £3tn, and it took six years to add the last trillion. The economy is growing faster than almost anyone forecast. Those two facts arrive together, two days before the Chancellor has to reconcile them. Everything in...

The MJBurrows Briefing, Issue No. 59, Monday 26 October 2026 — Fuel passes through, the core does not

ISSUE NO. 59 · MONDAY 26 OCTOBER 2026 2 days to the Budget Wed 28 Oct 10 days to the Bank’s decision Thu 5 Nov 22 days to the jobs data Tue 17 Nov Inflation at 3.5% and heading for 4%, retail sales down 0.4%, and capital gains tax taken off the table Inflation reached 3.5% in September, its highest in almost a year, and the Bank is already braced for 4%. Fuel did most of it — but core prices firmed too, and that is the part that does not pass. Every number last week pointed the same way....

Dark green MJBurrows Briefing card for Issue No. 58, Friday 23 October 2026, headline: Spending more is not the same as confidence.

ISSUE NO. 58 · FRIDAY 23 OCTOBER 2026 5 days to the Budget Wed 28 Oct 13 days to the Bank’s decision Thu 5 Nov 25 days to the jobs data Tue 17 Nov Confidence down to -40, £4bn set aside for bad loans as household buffers hit a three-year low, and £2.6bn for credit data The British Retail Consortium’s confidence index fell to -40 in October, a third monthly drop, and in the same survey people said they would spend more. That is not optimism. It is what bracing for higher prices looks like when...

The MJBurrows Briefing, Issue No. 57, Thursday 22 October 2026 — Inflation moved first, the Bank follows

ISSUE NO. 57 · THURSDAY 22 OCTOBER 2026 6 days to the Budget Wed 28 Oct 14 days to the Bank’s decision Thu 5 Nov 26 days to the jobs data Tue 17 Nov Inflation at 3.5% and climbing, £10.9bn of debt interest in a single month, and 1,400 Flutter jobs going over a gambling tax Inflation came in at 3.5% for September, above what the City had pencilled in, and the Bank is now widely expected to raise rates on 5 November. Fuel did most of it: Brent has spent the month near $100, against roughly $70...

The MJBurrows Briefing, Issue No. 56, Wednesday 21 October 2026 — Fewer jobs, and the Bank's reason to wait

ISSUE NO. 56 · WEDNESDAY 21 OCTOBER 2026 Today CPI Wed 21 Oct, 7.00am BST 7 days to the Budget Wed 28 Oct 15 days to the Bank’s decision Thu 5 Nov Vacancies under 700,000 for the first time since 2021, capital gains tax spared, and French yields at their widest over Germany since 2012 UK vacancies have fallen below 700,000 for the first time since April 2021. Rate-setters have spent weeks warning that energy prices could force a rise next month; a labour market this slack pulls hard the other...

The MJBurrows Briefing, Issue No. 55, Tuesday 20 October 2026 — The tax has moved to the handover

ISSUE NO. 55 · TUESDAY 20 OCTOBER 2026 1 day to CPI Wed 21 Oct, 7.00am BST 8 days to the Budget Wed 28 Oct 16 days to the Bank’s decision Thu 5 Nov A family handover taxed at 45% instead of 24%, 10,500 estates pulled into inheritance tax, and 65 profit warnings in a single quarter Healey is reportedly weighing an income tax charge on owners who hand a company down to their children, almost doubling what the handover costs them. It is not the only exit being closed. From April 2027 most unused...

The MJBurrows Briefing, Issue No. 54, Monday 19 October 2026 — The Budget is being written in share prices

ISSUE NO. 54 · MONDAY 19 OCTOBER 2026 1 day to jobs data Tue 20 Oct, 7.00am BST 2 days to CPI Wed 21 Oct, 7.00am BST 9 days to the Budget Wed 28 Oct Lloyds fell 2.5% on bank tax reports, the economy grew 0.1% in August, and £1bn of office rates are on the table Lloyds lost 2.5% on Friday on a report rather than an announcement. Reversing the 2023 cut to the bank surcharge would raise about £2bn a year — but the shares moved before anyone had confirmed a thing. That is the week in one trade....