ISSUE NO. 49 · FRIDAY 9 OCTOBER 2026

Diesel past 200p with Shell’s margin at $42 a barrel, London homes down 2.2%, and permanent hiring at a four-year high

Diesel went past 200p a litre in Britain for the first time last week. Shell expects its refining margin to reach $42 a barrel this quarter, against $24 in the last. The same squeeze reads as pain on the forecourt and profit in the products division.

What makes it more than an energy story is where the pressure has landed. Thirty-year gilts went past 6% last week and the average five-year fix has followed, which is why house prices in the capital are sliding while the national average sits still. None of that came from the Bank of England.

Below: who gains when a tank costs more, a capital falling while the country holds flat, a jobs market finding its feet, four numbers, the diary and one calculator.

Lead

The gap between crude and the pump is the widest Shell has seen this year, and drivers are the ones paying for it.

Shell expects an indicative refining margin of $42 a barrel in the third quarter, 75% up on the $24 it made in the second, with the gain landing in the products division that turns crude into petrol, diesel and jet fuel. G7 leaders have agreed to release emergency diesel and oil stocks, and disruption on the Rhine has held refinery utilisation at 93% to 97%. The squeeze has reached the bond market too: thirty-year gilt yields passed 6% last week, a level not seen this millennium. The full figures land on 29 October. Read the full story →

The Numbers

Four numbers. Bank Rate and the CPI print are unchanged, the index is Wednesday’s close with Thursday still trading, and the fourth is what a tank now costs.

More News

The national average did not move last month, which is doing a lot of work to hide what the capital did.

The average London home lost 2.2% over the year to £531,548, a steeper fall than August’s 1.5%, while UK prices were flat on the month and on the year. The South East fell 2.1% to £380,829 and eastern England 1.6% to £330,151, so the weakness is southern, and Lloyds blames dearer mortgages and stamp duty. The average five-year fix passed 6% this week for the first time, and money markets are pricing as many as four Bank of England rises before next summer. A flat headline is hiding a capital that is sliding. Read the full story →

Permanent hiring has grown two months running, which has not happened in four years.

KPMG and REC scored permanent placements at 50.9 in September, where anything above 50 means growth — a four-year high and the second month of it. Temporary billings matched at 50.9, though that was the slowest growth in five months. Overall demand for staff still shrank, but by the smallest margin since August 2024, and permanent private-sector vacancies rose for the first time in over two years. Staff availability eased to 57.2 from 60.6, with the deepest candidate pools in the North. Jon Holt of KPMG calls the recovery fragile and wants clarity on tax from the Budget. Read the full story →

The Brief

• The Budget Could Push More Cash Into Money Market Funds — £417m went in during September, the most since November 2025.
• Unite Students Is Cutting Rents to Keep Its Beds Full — 95.6% of beds let, and the fund still lost another 4%.

On the Diary

• Today, 9.30am BST — UK trade development plan update. A policy document rather than a statistic, but it sets what exporters can plan around.
• Thursday 15 October, 7.00am BST — Monthly GDP, August. The last growth reading before the Budget is written, and the one the OBR will lean on.
• Thursday 15 October, 7.00am BST — Construction output, August. Lands the same minute, and shows whether housebuilding is adding to growth or dragging.

The Toolbox

One tool from the site each issue, picked for whatever the week has just made expensive. Free, no sign-up, and it shows its workings.

Mileage allowance calculator

“At this price a litre, the mileage you claim back matters more. This works out what HMRC’s rates owe you, and what you are short if your employer pays less.”

The Close

Bank Rate has not changed since last December, and yet almost everything a household borrows against has become dearer this year. That is an energy shock arriving by another road: the bond market, then the mortgage desk, then the asking price in the capital. The hiring figures are the one thing pulling the other way. Watch whether the Chancellor treats them as a recovery to protect or a cushion to spend.

If something here is wrong, or there is something you want dug into, just reply. It comes straight to me.

MJB